Pattern similarity-based machine learning methods for mid-term load forecasting: A comparative study

نویسندگان

چکیده

Pattern similarity-based frameworks are widely used for classification and regression problems. Repeated, similar-shaped cycles observed in seasonal time series encourage the use of such forecasting. In this paper, we pattern models mid-term load An integral part these is patterns sequences representation. representation ensures input output data unification through trend filtering variance equalization. This simplifies forecasting problem allows us to based on similarity. We consider four models: nearest-neighbor model, fuzzy neighborhood kernel general neural network. Three variants approach were proposed. A basic one two hybrid solutions combining statistical methods (ARIMA exponential smoothing). experimental work, proposed forecast monthly electricity demand 35 European countries. The results show high performance models, which outperform both comparative classical machine learning terms accuracy, simplicity, ease optimization. Among variants, a with smoothing turned out be most accurate. study highlights many advantages as clear operation principles, small number parameters adjust, no training procedure, fast optimization good generalization ability, ability work newest without retraining, delivery multi-step forecasts. • framework presented. problem. Four MTLF defined. outperformed state-of-the-art models. Advantages: parameters,

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Applied Soft Computing

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1568-4946', '1872-9681']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107223